U.S. House · Mississippi · Nov 3 · 7 days out

Mississippi House, district 3

Michael Guest (Republican, incumbent) against Michael Chiaradio (Democrat).

Michael Guest

Republican · incumbent · record Right 23

97%party to win

vs.

Michael Chiaradio

Democrat · challenger · estimate L-lean 22

<1%party to win

Where they stand · 45 points apart

Chiaradio is an estimate

Solid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.

Michael GuestrecordMichael Chiaradioestimate

Issue · biggest gap firstLeftCenterRightApart

Overall

2322

45 pts

Energy, environment, land and agriculture

2433

57 pts ▸

Foreign policy, trade and defense

2723

49 pts ▸

Crime and justice

2624

49 pts ▸

Trade and industrial policy

1828

45 pts ▸

Education

2218

40 pts ▸

Health care

2415

39 pts ▸

Money

FEC to Sep 30

RaisedGuest

$1MChiaradio

$208kItemized, named donorsGuest

$482kChiaradio

$91kNamed donorsGuest

329Chiaradio

171Itemized from MississippiGuest

64%Chiaradio

19%

The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.

In their own words

Campaign sites and X

“Maintain globally competitive tax rates; Limit corporate loopholes” Chiaradio · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗

All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4

Candidate	Platform	Contract	Bid	Ask	Last	Volume
Michael Guest	Kalshi	Republican wins	98%	98%	95%	$1,067	Open ↗
Michael Guest	Polymarket	Republican wins	98%	99%	97%	$22,678	Open ↗
Michael Chiaradio	Kalshi	Democrat wins	2%	2%	2%	$2,950	Open ↗
Michael Chiaradio	Polymarket	Democrat wins	—	<1%	<1%	$40,163	Open ↗

Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.

Also on the Mississippi ballot

Senate

Hyde-Smith (R) 89% · Colom (D) 11%

House · MS-1

Kelly (R) 97% · Johnson (D) 2%

House · MS-2

Thompson (D) 98% · Eller (R) 3%

House · MS-4

Ezell (R) 95% · Hulum (D) 4%

Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll