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U.S. House · Missouri · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Missouri House, district 4
Mark Alford (Republican, incumbent) against Jordan Herrera (Democrat).
Where they stand · 52 points apart
Herrera is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Mark AlfordrecordJordan Herreraestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedAlford$1.6MHerrera$42kItemized, named donorsAlford$772kHerrera$17kNamed donorsAlford539Herrera28Itemized from MissouriAlford39%Herrera53%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“CONSERVATIVE CHAMPION”
“Real people. Real challenges. Real results. No matter the challenge, our caseworkers are committed to delivering for MO-04.” Alford · X post · Oct 20 · ↗
“I will fight to: Protect and expand Medicaid and Medicare funding” Herrera · Campaign site · Sep 29 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 2
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Alford | Polymarket | Republican wins | 95% | 98% | 95% | $42,470 | Open ↗ |
| Jordan Herrera | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 2% | 5% | 2% | $30,793 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Missouri ballot
All 7 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll