U.S. House · Missouri · Nov 3 · 7 days out

Missouri House, district 3

Bob Onder (Republican, incumbent) against Bethany Mann (Democrat).

Bob Onder

Republican · incumbent · estimate Right 41

97%party to win

vs.

Bethany Mann

Democrat · challenger · estimate Left 29

3%party to win

Where they stand · 71 points apart

Estimates

Hollow dots are read from each campaign’s own words; nobody here has a voting record yet. Biggest gaps first.

Bob OnderestimateBethany Mannestimate

Issue · biggest gap firstLeftCenterRightApart

Overall

4129

71 pts

Health care

4345

88 pts ▸

Education

2833

60 pts ▸

Civil rights, gender and religion

4318

60 pts ▸

Trade and industrial policy

1540

25 pts ▸

Money

FEC to Sep 30

RaisedOnder

$2.3MMann

$77kItemized, named donorsOnder

$451kMann

$32kNamed donorsOnder

246Mann

79Itemized from MissouriOnder

78%Mann

93%

The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.

In their own words

Campaign sites and X

“If Sherod Brown opposes sex-change procedures on kids, he should immediately endorse my @chloecole Act.” Onder · X post · Oct 18 · ↗

“BRINGING MISSOURIANS TOGETHER.”

“I support the Women’s Health Protection Act... Abortion is healthcare. Access to healthcare saves lives.” Mann · Campaign site · Invalid Date · ↗

All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 2

Candidate	Platform	Contract	Bid	Ask	Last	Volume
Bob Onder	Polymarket	Republican wins	95%	97%	97%	$18,146	Open ↗
Bethany Mann	Polymarket	Democrat wins	2%	4%	3%	$24,661	Open ↗

Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.

Also on the Missouri ballot

All 7 →

House · MO-1

Bell (D) 99% · Berry (R) 2%

House · MO-2

Wagner (R) 62% · Wellman (D) 38%

House · MO-4

Alford (R) 95% · Herrera (D) 2%

House · MO-5

Cleaver (D) 95% · Brattin (R) 3%

House · MO-6

Stigall (R) 95% · Smead (D) 4%

House · MO-7

Burlison (R) 96% · Hesketh (D) 3%

Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll