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U.S. House · Michigan · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Michigan House, district 8
Kristen McDonald Rivet (Democrat, incumbent) against Tom Smith (Republican).
Where they stand · 48 points apart
Smith is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Kristen McDonald RivetrecordTom Smithestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedRivet$6.8MSmith$550kItemized, named donorsRivet$3.8MSmith$7kNamed donorsRivet2,371Smith10Itemized from MichiganRivet33%Smith21%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“Head Start ratios make sure teachers can do their jobs well and kids are safe. This Administration is trying to take that and a bunch of other commonsense standards away.” Rivet · X post · Oct 16 · ↗
“The Constitution, Faith, Freedom”
“restoring deportations” Smith · Campaign site · Invalid Date · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristen McDonald Rivet | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 94% | 95% | 94% | $4,727 | Open ↗ |
| Kristen McDonald Rivet | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 94% | 96% | 95% | $9,803 | Open ↗ |
| Tom Smith | Kalshi | Republican wins | 3% | 5% | 5% | $5,844 | Open ↗ |
| Tom Smith | Polymarket | Republican wins | 4% | 6% | 5% | $16,695 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Michigan ballot
All 14 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll