U.S. House · Michigan · Nov 3 · 7 days out

Michigan House, district 10

Christina Hines (Democrat) against Mike Bouchard Jr (Republican).

Democrat · challenger · estimate Center 3

67%party to win

vs.

Republican · challenger · estimate Right 33

34%party to win

Where they stand · 30 points apart

Estimates

Hollow dots are read from each campaign’s own words; nobody here has a voting record yet. Biggest gaps first.

Christina HinesestimateMike Bouchard Jrestimate

Issue · biggest gap firstLeftCenterRightApart

Overall

333

30 pts

Education

2328

50 pts ▸

Health care

1533

48 pts ▸

Civil rights, gender and religion

183

21 pts ▸

Crime and justice

3340

7 pts ▸

FEC to Sep 30

RaisedHines

$3.5MBouchard

$2.6MItemized, named donorsHines

$2.3MBouchard

$1.5MNamed donorsHines

1,994Bouchard

597Itemized from MichiganHines

33%Bouchard

85%

The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.

Campaign sites and X

“I worked side-by-side with law enforcement to put dangerous criminals behind bars and protect victims and families.” Hines · X post · Oct 6 · ↗

“I stand for finishing the wall” Bouchard · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗

All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4

Candidate	Platform	Contract	Bid	Ask	Last	Volume
Christina Hines	Kalshi	Democrat wins	66%	67%	67%	$15,603	Open ↗
Christina Hines	Polymarket	Democrat wins	66%	67%	67%	$8,696	Open ↗
Mike Bouchard Jr	Kalshi	Republican wins	32%	34%	34%	$15,060	Open ↗
Mike Bouchard Jr	Polymarket	Republican wins	32%	34%	34%	$5,611	Open ↗

Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.

Also on the Michigan ballot

Senate · open seat

Governor · open seat

House · MI-1

House · MI-2

House · MI-3

House · MI-4

Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll