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U.S. House · Maryland · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Maryland House, district 8
Jamie Raskin (Democrat, incumbent) against Cheryl Riley (Republican).
Where they stand · 72 points apart
Riley is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Jamie RaskinrecordCheryl Rileyestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedRaskin$9.1MRiley$22kItemized, named donorsRaskin$4.2MRiley$15kNamed donorsRaskin7,410Riley21Itemized from MarylandRaskin34%Riley83%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“Yes on 3 is No on Trump. Spread the word. This is our chance to fight back against extreme MAGA gerrymanders from Texas to Florida. Vote Yes on 3 and fight back against Trump.” Raskin · X post · Oct 20 · ↗
“AMERICA FIRST, MARYLAND PROUD!”
“Grateful for @ICEgov” Riley · X post · Jan 25 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Raskin | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 98% | 99% | >99% | $126 | Open ↗ |
| Jamie Raskin | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 97% | 99% | 97% | $19,486 | Open ↗ |
| Cheryl Riley | Kalshi | Republican wins | 1% | 3% | 3% | $328 | Open ↗ |
| Cheryl Riley | Polymarket | Republican wins | 1% | 3% | 3% | $8,628 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Maryland ballot
All 8 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll