Governor · South Dakota · Nov 3 · 7 days out

South Dakota Governor

Larry Rhoden (Republican, incumbent) against Dan Ahlers (Democrat).

Republican · incumbent · estimate Right 36

98%▲ 1 since April

vs.

Democrat · challenger · estimate L-lean 22

2%▲ 1 since April

Party to win · Kalshi daily close, Oct 27All market contracts ▸

Where they stand · 59 points apart

Estimates

Hollow dots are read from each campaign’s own words; nobody here has a voting record yet. Biggest gaps first.

Larry RhodenestimateDan Ahlersestimate

Issue · biggest gap firstLeftCenterRightApart

Overall

3622

59 pts

Education

3323

55 pts ▸

Health care

3023

53 pts ▸

Trade and industrial policy

828

20 pts ▸

Campaign sites and X

“The first bill I signed as Governor banned Sanctuary Cities” Rhoden · X post · Apr 29 · ↗

“FOR A BRIGHTER SOUTH DAKOTA”

“Recruit and retain great teachers in classrooms across the state.” Ahlers · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗

All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4

Candidate	Platform	Contract	Bid	Ask	Last	Volume
Larry Rhoden	Kalshi	Republican wins	97%	98%	98%	$5,331	Open ↗
Larry Rhoden	Polymarket	Republican wins	97%	98%	96%	$9,712	Open ↗
Dan Ahlers	Kalshi	Democrat wins	2%	3%	2%	$5,237	Open ↗
Dan Ahlers	Polymarket	Democrat wins	2%	3%	2%	$17,798	Open ↗

Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.

Also on the South Dakota ballot

Senate

House · SD-AL

Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll