U.S. House · South Dakota · Nov 3 · 7 days out

South Dakota House, at-large

Marty Jackley (Republican) against Nikki Gronli (Democrat).

Republican · challenger · estimate Rt-lean 12

96%party to win

vs.

Democrat · challenger · estimate L-lean 22

4%party to win

Where they stand · 34 points apart

Estimates

Hollow dots are read from each campaign’s own words; nobody here has a voting record yet. Biggest gaps first.

Marty JackleyestimateNikki Gronliestimate

Issue · biggest gap firstLeftCenterRightApart

Overall

1222

34 pts

Energy, environment, land and agriculture

2323

45 pts ▸

FEC to Sep 30

RaisedJackley

$1.7MGronli

$387kItemized, named donorsJackley

$1.4MGronli

$230kNamed donorsJackley

797Gronli

447Itemized from South DakotaJackley

90%Gronli

89%

The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.

Campaign sites and X

“A proven fighter for South Dakota”

“In Congress I will work with @POTUS to fight illegal immigration!” Jackley · X post · Invalid Date · ↗

“Protect Title I funding for schools serving students from low-income families.” Gronli · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗

All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4

Candidate	Platform	Contract	Bid	Ask	Last	Volume
Marty Jackley	Kalshi	Republican wins	96%	97%	96%	$2,037	Open ↗
Marty Jackley	Polymarket	Republican wins	94%	96%	96%	$25,122	Open ↗
Nikki Gronli	Kalshi	Democrat wins	2%	4%	3%	$3,826	Open ↗
Nikki Gronli	Polymarket	Democrat wins	4%	5%	4%	$12,337	Open ↗

Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.

Also on the South Dakota ballot

Senate

Governor

Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll