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U.S. House · Pennsylvania · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Pennsylvania House, district 9
Dan Meuser (Republican, incumbent) against Rachel Wallace (Democrat).
Where they stand · 56 points apart
EstimatesHollow dots are read from each campaign’s own words; nobody here has a voting record yet. Biggest gaps first.
Dan MeuserestimateRachel Wallaceestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedMeuser$2.1MWallace$1.1MItemized, named donorsMeuser$947kWallace$718kNamed donorsMeuser475Wallace864Itemized from PennsylvaniaMeuser64%Wallace45%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“Advancing America First”
“ICE arrested 32,809 illegal aliens; over 100,000 have been deported since January.” Meuser · Campaign site · Sep 29 · ↗
“9th Generation Pennsylvanian.”
“Reverse the historic cuts to health care Congress voted for in 2025.” Wallace · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Meuser | Kalshi | Republican wins | 93% | 95% | 95% | $3,977 | Open ↗ |
| Dan Meuser | Polymarket | Republican wins | 94% | 96% | 97% | $15,229 | Open ↗ |
| Rachel Wallace | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 6% | 7% | 7% | $3,057 | Open ↗ |
| Rachel Wallace | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 4% | 5% | 7% | $8,359 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Pennsylvania ballot
All 17 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll