U.S. House · Pennsylvania · Nov 3 · 7 days out

Pennsylvania House, district 8

Paige Cognetti (Democrat) against Rob Bresnahan (Republican, incumbent).

Democrat · challenger · estimate Left 23

86%party to win

vs.

Republican · incumbent · estimate Right 25

15%party to win

Where they stand · 48 points apart

Estimates

Hollow dots are read from each campaign’s own words; nobody here has a voting record yet. Biggest gaps first.

Paige CognettiestimateRob Bresnahanestimate

Issue · biggest gap firstLeftCenterRightApart

Overall

2325

48 pts

Federal budget, taxes and spending

2328

50 pts ▸

Energy, environment, land and agriculture

1528

43 pts ▸

FEC to Sep 30

RaisedCognetti

$7.1MBresnahan

$6.2MItemized, named donorsCognetti

$4.9MBresnahan

$1.6MNamed donorsCognetti

4,161Bresnahan

1,539Itemized from PennsylvaniaCognetti

25%Bresnahan

51%

The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.

Campaign sites and X

“And hire local, union labor.” Cognetti · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗

“Delivering Results for Northeastern Pennsylvania”

“Co-sponsor of the Protect And Serve Act, which enhances penalties for targeting law enforcement.” Bresnahan · X post · Feb 17 · ↗

All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4

Candidate	Platform	Contract	Bid	Ask	Last	Volume
Paige Cognetti	Kalshi	Democrat wins	85%	86%	86%	$67,631	Open ↗
Paige Cognetti	Polymarket	Democrat wins	85%	87%	85%	$16,551	Open ↗
Rob Bresnahan	Kalshi	Republican wins	15%	16%	15%	$187,252	Open ↗
Rob Bresnahan	Polymarket	Republican wins	13%	14%	14%	$34,166	Open ↗

Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.

Also on the Pennsylvania ballot

Governor

House · PA-1

House · PA-2

House · PA-3

House · PA-4

House · PA-5

Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll