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U.S. House · Pennsylvania · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Pennsylvania House, district 12
Summer Lee (Democrat, incumbent) against James Hayes (Republican).
Where they stand · 80 points apart
Hayes is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Summer LeerecordJames Hayesestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedLee$1.6MHayes$65kItemized, named donorsLee$819kHayes$42kNamed donorsLee1,017Hayes50Itemized from PennsylvaniaLee24%Hayes95%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“Democrat For Congress | PA-12 Fighting For Working Families”
“Today is the last day to register to vote in Pennsylvania’s November election. Make sure you’re registered and ready to make your voice heard. Check your registration or register today!” Lee · X post · Oct 19 · ↗
“I'm running to bring COMMONSENSE SOLUTIONS TO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA”
“James Hayes backs law enforcement” Hayes · X post · Oct 13 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Summer Lee | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 98% | 99% | 99% | $66,923 | Open ↗ |
| Summer Lee | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 96% | 99% | 97% | $19,270 | Open ↗ |
| James Hayes | Kalshi | Republican wins | 1% | 3% | 3% | $3,075 | Open ↗ |
| James Hayes | Polymarket | Republican wins | <1% | 2% | 1% | $5,438 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Pennsylvania ballot
All 17 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll