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U.S. House · Pennsylvania · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Pennsylvania House, district 11
Lloyd Smucker (Republican, incumbent) against Nancy Mannion (Democrat).
Where they stand · 45 points apart
Mannion is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Lloyd SmuckerrecordNancy Mannionestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedSmucker$1.8MMannion$305kItemized, named donorsSmucker$225kMannion$159kNamed donorsSmucker125Mannion245Itemized from PennsylvaniaSmucker18%Mannion86%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“top priority to guarantee access to high-quality, affordable healthcare for families and eliminate cost barriers” Mannion · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lloyd Smucker | Kalshi | Republican wins | 94% | 96% | 96% | $4,284 | Open ↗ |
| Lloyd Smucker | Polymarket | Republican wins | 95% | 96% | 95% | $47,533 | Open ↗ |
| Nancy Mannion | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 5% | 6% | 6% | $4,768 | Open ↗ |
| Nancy Mannion | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 4% | 6% | 4% | $19,856 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Pennsylvania ballot
All 17 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll