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U.S. House · Oklahoma · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Oklahoma House, district 5
Stephanie Bice (Republican, incumbent) against Jena Nelson (Democrat).
Where they stand · 48 points apart
Nelson is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Stephanie BicerecordJena Nelsonestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedBice$2.4MNelson$739kItemized, named donorsBice$522kNelson$478kNamed donorsBice393Nelson669Itemized from OklahomaBice41%Nelson87%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“Delivering results.”
“I was proud to sign @VP’s pledge to protect Americans from fraud. We must hold fraudsters accountable, protect taxpayer dollars, and make sure these benefits go to the Americans who need them most. @WHFraudTF” Bice · X post · Oct 20 · ↗
“Strong. Responsible. Ready.”
“Raise the minimum wage to $17/hour” Nelson · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephanie Bice | Kalshi | Republican wins | 84% | 85% | 85% | $12,278 | Open ↗ |
| Stephanie Bice | Polymarket | Republican wins | 84% | 85% | 83% | $19,437 | Open ↗ |
| Jena Nelson | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 14% | 15% | 15% | $20,893 | Open ↗ |
| Jena Nelson | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 15% | 16% | 14% | $15,736 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Oklahoma ballot
Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll