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U.S. House · Oklahoma · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Oklahoma House, district 1
Mark Tedford (Republican) against John Croisant (Democrat).
Where they stand · 50 points apart
EstimatesHollow dots are read from each campaign’s own words; nobody here has a voting record yet. Biggest gaps first.
Mark TedfordestimateJohn Croisantestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedTedford$2.4MCroisant$208kItemized, named donorsTedford$556kCroisant$150kNamed donorsTedford331Croisant248Itemized from OklahomaTedford93%Croisant99%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Tedford | Kalshi | Republican wins | 95% | 98% | 95% | $2,567 | Open ↗ |
| Mark Tedford | Polymarket | Republican wins | 96% | 99% | 95% | $20,274 | Open ↗ |
| John Croisant | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 2% | 4% | 3% | $4,635 | Open ↗ |
| John Croisant | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 1% | 2% | 2% | $24,062 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Oklahoma ballot
Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll