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U.S. House · Ohio · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Ohio House, district 15
Mike Carey (Republican, incumbent) against Don Leonard (Democrat).
Where they stand · 45 points apart
Leonard is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Mike CareyrecordDon Leonardestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedCarey$4MLeonard$1.1MItemized, named donorsCarey$1MLeonard$791kNamed donorsCarey840Leonard688Itemized from OhioCarey33%Leonard66%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“AMERICA FIRST. OUTSIDER. READY TO FIGHT.”
“Great to join fellow Republicans at the Miami County Republican Party Picnic. Ohio Republicans are fired up about this election and ready to get out the vote this November. Let’s keep the momentum going.” Carey · X post · Oct 19 · ↗
“the critical importance of government safety nets” Leonard · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Carey | Kalshi | Republican wins | 63% | 64% | 64% | $55,146 | Open ↗ |
| Mike Carey | Polymarket | Republican wins | 61% | 64% | 60% | $25,411 | Open ↗ |
| Don Leonard | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 36% | 37% | 36% | $50,313 | Open ↗ |
| Don Leonard | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 36% | 38% | 38% | $28,563 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Ohio ballot
All 16 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll