Governor · New Hampshire · Nov 3 · 7 days out

New Hampshire Governor

Kelly Ayotte (Republican, incumbent) against Cinde Warmington (Democrat). Ayotte is up 20 points on the markets since April.

Republican · incumbent · estimate Right 26

94%▲ 20 since April

vs.

Democrat · challenger · estimate Left 27

6%▼ 20 since April

Party to win · Kalshi daily close, Oct 27All market contracts ▸

Where they stand · 53 points apart

Estimates

Hollow dots are read from each campaign’s own words; nobody here has a voting record yet. Biggest gaps first.

Kelly AyotteestimateCinde Warmingtonestimate

Issue · biggest gap firstLeftCenterRightApart

Overall

2627

53 pts

Crime and justice

3128

59 pts ▸

Immigration

3023

53 pts ▸

Federal budget, taxes and spending

2323

45 pts ▸

Energy, environment, land and agriculture

1226

38 pts ▸

Campaign sites and X

“increased penalties for refusing DUI testing” Ayotte · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗

“As Governor, I’ll repeal Kelly Ayotte’s private school voucher scheme” Warmington · X post · Invalid Date · ↗

All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4

Candidate	Platform	Contract	Bid	Ask	Last	Volume
Kelly Ayotte	Kalshi	Republican wins	94%	94%	94%	$95,027	Open ↗
Kelly Ayotte	Polymarket	Republican wins	93%	93%	93%	$27,550	Open ↗
Cinde Warmington	Kalshi	Democrat wins	6%	7%	6%	$172,726	Open ↗
Cinde Warmington	Polymarket	Democrat wins	6%	7%	6%	$25,176	Open ↗

Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.

Also on the New Hampshire ballot

Senate · open seat

House · NH-1

House · NH-2

Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll