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U.S. House · North Carolina · Nov 3 · 7 days out
North Carolina House, district 6
Addison McDowell (Republican, incumbent) against Cyril Jefferson (Democrat).
Where they stand · 45 points apart
Jefferson is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Addison McDowellrecordCyril Jeffersonestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedMcDowell$1.4MJefferson$229kItemized, named donorsMcDowell$596kJefferson$162kNamed donorsMcDowell313Jefferson149Itemized from North CarolinaMcDowell77%Jefferson90%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“On November 3rd, we are going to reject Democrats who want to open the border. We are going to reject Roy Cooper. And we are going to elect @WhatleyNC to the US Senate!” McDowell · X post · Sep 21 · ↗
“Bolder Solutions, Brighter Future for Working Families”
“protect American wages with E-Verify” Jefferson · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Addison McDowell | Kalshi | Republican wins | 89% | 91% | 89% | $3,458 | Open ↗ |
| Addison McDowell | Polymarket | Republican wins | 89% | 90% | 87% | $31,722 | Open ↗ |
| Cyril Jefferson | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 10% | 11% | 10% | $8,108 | Open ↗ |
| Cyril Jefferson | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 10% | 12% | 12% | $35,616 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the North Carolina ballot
All 14 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll