← All races
U.S. House · Kansas · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Kansas House, district 4
Ron Estes (Republican, incumbent) against Katy Tyndell (Democrat).
Where they stand · 46 points apart
Tyndell is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Ron EstesrecordKaty Tyndellestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedEstes$2.2MTyndell$546kItemized, named donorsEstes$352kTyndell$438kNamed donorsEstes217Tyndell413Itemized from KansasEstes53%Tyndell75%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“Our Kansas Champion.”
“Susan and I grieve with the families who lost loved ones at Stryker Sports Complex this afternoon. We are praying for those impacted and grateful for the first responders assisting our community.” Estes · X post · Oct 17 · ↗
“Deliver for Kansans”
“we cannot do without ensuring protections for the workers and families that progress is supposed to benefit” Tyndell · Campaign site · Sep 29 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Estes | Kalshi | Republican wins | 95% | 98% | 97% | $7,509 | Open ↗ |
| Ron Estes | Polymarket | Republican wins | 94% | 97% | 97% | $42,925 | Open ↗ |
| Katy Tyndell | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 4% | 4% | 5% | $5,473 | Open ↗ |
| Katy Tyndell | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 3% | 4% | 4% | $113,887 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Kansas ballot
Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll