U.S. House · Illinois · Nov 3 · 7 days out

Illinois House, district 9

Daniel Biss (Democrat) against John Elleson (Republican).

Democrat · challenger · estimate Left 43

98%party to win

vs.

Republican · challenger · estimate Right 24

5%party to win

Where they stand · 67 points apart

Estimates

Hollow dots are read from each campaign’s own words; nobody here has a voting record yet. Biggest gaps first.

Daniel BissestimateJohn Ellesonestimate

Issue · biggest gap firstLeftCenterRightApart

Overall

4324

67 pts

Immigration

4528

73 pts ▸

Civil rights, gender and religion

4320

63 pts ▸

FEC to Sep 30

RaisedBiss

$3.4MElleson

—Itemized, named donorsBiss

$2.9MElleson

—Named donorsBiss

1,683Elleson

—Itemized from IllinoisBiss

81%Elleson

—

The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.

Campaign sites and X

“We must abolish ICE.” Biss · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗

“A steady voice in a divided world”

“You’re an open borders candidate who has blood of their hands.” Elleson · X post · Jul 2 · ↗

All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4

Candidate	Platform	Contract	Bid	Ask	Last	Volume
Daniel Biss	Kalshi	Democrat wins	96%	98%	98%	$1,976	Open ↗
Daniel Biss	Polymarket	Democrat wins	95%	99%	98%	$17,613	Open ↗
John Elleson	Kalshi	Republican wins	2%	4%	4%	$980	Open ↗
John Elleson	Polymarket	Republican wins	2%	5%	5%	$14,360	Open ↗

Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.

Also on the Illinois ballot

Senate · open seat

Governor

House · IL-1

House · IL-2

House · IL-3

House · IL-4

Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll