U.S. House · Utah · Nov 3 · 7 days out

Utah House, district 4

Mike Kennedy (Republican, incumbent) against Jonny Larsen (Democrat).

Republican · incumbent · record Right 34

96%party to win

vs.

Democrat · challenger · estimate L-lean 17

3%party to win

Where they stand · 51 points apart

Larsen is an estimate

Solid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.

Mike KennedyrecordJonny Larsenestimate

Issue · biggest gap firstLeftCenterRightApart

Overall

3417

51 pts

Energy, environment, land and agriculture

3818

55 pts ▸

Crime and justice

3518

53 pts ▸

Federal budget, taxes and spending

3418

51 pts ▸

Civil rights, gender and religion

3615

51 pts ▸

Health care

3215

47 pts ▸

FEC to Sep 30

RaisedKennedy

$1.2MLarsen

$84kItemized, named donorsKennedy

$499kLarsen

$27kNamed donorsKennedy

255Larsen

38Itemized from UtahKennedy

75%Larsen

68%

The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.

Campaign sites and X

“Congratulations on a phenomenal game BYU!” Kennedy · X post · Oct 18 · ↗

“Do you want aBlue Dogor a lap dogto this administration?”

“Our service members deserve better, they deserve representatives that understand that cost.” Larsen · X post · Oct 16 · ↗

All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4

Candidate	Platform	Contract	Bid	Ask	Last	Volume
Mike Kennedy	Kalshi	Republican wins	93%	95%	96%	$3,321	Open ↗
Mike Kennedy	Polymarket	Republican wins	95%	96%	96%	$33,470	Open ↗
Jonny Larsen	Kalshi	Democrat wins	4%	7%	5%	$2,250	Open ↗
Jonny Larsen	Polymarket	Democrat wins	3%	5%	3%	$27,007	Open ↗

Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.

Also on the Utah ballot

House · UT-1

House · UT-2

House · UT-3

Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll