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U.S. House · Ohio · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Ohio House, district 9
Marcy Kaptur (Democrat, incumbent) against Derek Merrin (Republican).
Where they stand · 43 points apart
Merrin is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Marcy KapturrecordDerek Merrinestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedKaptur$5.6MMerrin$2.1MItemized, named donorsKaptur$2.6MMerrin$597kNamed donorsKaptur2,249Merrin381Itemized from OhioKaptur31%Merrin56%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“Fighting for you.”
“Fulton County’s Nova Steel production facility in Delta is building our NW Ohio region forward. Thanks to all for the warm welcome, and for delivering for America’s future.” Kaptur · X post · Oct 20 · ↗
“A STRONG AMERICA!”
“Deport Illegal Immigrants” Merrin · X post · Apr 8 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcy Kaptur | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 76% | 77% | 75% | $54,422 | Open ↗ |
| Marcy Kaptur | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 75% | 76% | 74% | $16,353 | Open ↗ |
| Derek Merrin | Kalshi | Republican wins | 23% | 24% | 24% | $53,775 | Open ↗ |
| Derek Merrin | Polymarket | Republican wins | 23% | 25% | 23% | $39,376 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Ohio ballot
All 16 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll