U.S. House · Ohio · Nov 3 · 7 days out

Ohio House, district 14

Dave Joyce (Republican, incumbent) against Maria Jukic (Democrat).

Republican · incumbent · estimate L·Cntr 3

96%party to win

vs.

Democrat · challenger · estimate Left 31

4%party to win

Where they stand · 28 points apart

Estimates

Hollow dots are read from each campaign’s own words; nobody here has a voting record yet. Biggest gaps first.

Dave JoyceestimateMaria Jukicestimate

Issue · biggest gap firstLeftCenterRightApart

Overall

331

28 pts

Immigration

1533

48 pts ▸

FEC to Sep 30

RaisedJoyce

$1.7MJukic

$105kItemized, named donorsJoyce

$428kJukic

$65kNamed donorsJoyce

258Jukic

125Itemized from OhioJoyce

44%Jukic

65%

The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.

Campaign sites and X

“Joyce’s strong record of supporting law enforcement.” Joyce · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗

“The Change We Need!”

“Maria also supports raising the federal minimum wage” Jukic · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗

All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4

Candidate	Platform	Contract	Bid	Ask	Last	Volume
Dave Joyce	Kalshi	Republican wins	95%	98%	94%	$3,592	Open ↗
Dave Joyce	Polymarket	Republican wins	96%	97%	96%	$46,118	Open ↗
Maria Jukic	Kalshi	Democrat wins	2%	5%	4%	$3,339	Open ↗
Maria Jukic	Polymarket	Democrat wins	2%	4%	4%	$55,771	Open ↗

Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.

Also on the Ohio ballot

Senate

Governor · open seat

House · OH-1

House · OH-2

House · OH-3

House · OH-4

Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll