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U.S. House · Hawaii · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Hawaii House, district 2
Jill Tokuda (Democrat, incumbent) against Brenton Awa (Republican).
Where they stand · 16 points apart
Awa is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Jill TokudarecordBrenton Awaestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedTokuda$939kAwa$129kItemized, named donorsTokuda$607kAwa$95kNamed donorsTokuda550Awa73Itemized from HawaiiTokuda70%Awa92%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“FOR YOU, HAWAIʻI”
“The Home Team.”
“Increase the child tax credit to provide greater tax relief for families.” Awa · Campaign site · Sep 30 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jill Tokuda | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 95% | 97% | 94% | $7,306 | Open ↗ |
| Jill Tokuda | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 95% | 98% | 96% | $44,979 | Open ↗ |
| Brenton Awa | Kalshi | Republican wins | 3% | 5% | 4% | $33,604 | Open ↗ |
| Brenton Awa | Polymarket | Republican wins | 2% | 5% | 5% | $37,935 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Hawaii ballot
Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll