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U.S. House · Massachusetts · Nov 3 · 7 days out
Massachusetts House, district 4
Jake Auchincloss (Democrat, incumbent) against Tom Stalcup (Republican).
Where they stand · 14 points apart
Stalcup is an estimateSolid is a voting record; hollow is read from the campaign’s own words. Biggest gaps first.
Jake AuchinclossrecordTom Stalcupestimate
Money
FEC to Sep 30RaisedAuchincloss$3.9MStalcup$27kItemized, named donorsAuchincloss$2.3MStalcup$8kNamed donorsAuchincloss1,076Stalcup8Itemized from MassachusettsAuchincloss51%Stalcup49%
The FEC doesn't name donors who give under $200, so their gifts count in Raised but not Itemized.
In their own words
Campaign sites and X“Good leaders eat last”
“End the reality TV politics and govern like grown-ups.” Auchincloss · X post · Oct 15 · ↗
“Taking On Powerful Interests-And the Congressman Beholden to Them”
“Congress must fully exercise its constitutional responsibility before authorizing the use of force” Stalcup · Campaign site · Sep 29 · ↗
All market contracts · Kalshi and Polymarket · 4
| Candidate | Platform | Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Auchincloss | Kalshi | Democrat wins | 97% | 98% | 91% | $565 | Open ↗ |
| Jake Auchincloss | Polymarket | Democrat wins | 97% | 97% | 97% | $23,913 | Open ↗ |
| Tom Stalcup | Kalshi | Republican wins | 2% | 3% | 3% | $2,054 | Open ↗ |
| Tom Stalcup | Polymarket | Republican wins | 1% | 3% | 2% | $25,019 | Open ↗ |
Prices in cents on the dollar, read Oct 27, 2026. A party contract pays if that party wins the seat.
Also on the Massachusetts ballot
All 10 →Statement estimate · odds are a market close, not a poll